Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa9…7633 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$1,074 · open −$1,078
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%30W / 72L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$552est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$4,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,832
7 days−$4,351
14 days−$1,506
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$788
other 38% −$558
world 0% −$100
crypto 0% −$96
weather 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -38.5% -44.4% 19% 19% -21.2%
≤30d 90 +5.6% -4.5% 27% 27% -11.1%
≤90d 90 +5.6% -4.5% 27% 27% -11.1%
all 102 +5.9% -4.2% 29% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 28% -10.7%
10% -13.4% 25% -19.2%
15% -21.8% 23% -27.0%
20% -29.4% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +86% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$554 vs −$238 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$4,457
Realized+$1,074
Unrealized−$1,078
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses30 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$552
Open positions9
Markets (closed)102 / 111
History coverage179d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1,850 $1,639 −$210 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1,198 $1,449 +$251 (+21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 18¢ $1,500 $610 −$890 (-59%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $485 $498 +$13 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $53 $10 −$43 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,027 −$205 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $614 −$416 -68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $918 −$450 -49%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,030 −$1,000 -49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $411 −$411 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $5,067 −$5,067 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $895 −$635 -71%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$109 +107%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,023 +$313 +31%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,012 +$245 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,016 +$773 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,727 +$229 +13%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,023 +$1,949 +190%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 26? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Guatemala? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-28? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 1 Italy? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $236 −$83 -35%
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 0 Italy? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $814 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $822 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $712 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $547 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 8¢ $197 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,520 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $409 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $507 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $205 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $1,012 24h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $1,010 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 58¢ $971 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $1,017 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1,012 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $297 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $211 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $870 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 95¢ $1,707 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1,790 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 40¢ $1,956 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 79¢ $550 27h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $918 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $2,012 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,016 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,456.74 · official $4,456.74 (match) · 339 history records