Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa7…0ab3 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%33W / 36L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 31% +$2
sports 16% +$3
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 69 -0.8% -10.2% 48% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses33 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage527d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $116 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $99 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $82 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $37 −$6 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $244 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3 $0 -7%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $244 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $267 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $243 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $212 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 09 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $10 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $28 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $22 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records