Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

4F 0x4fa3…c7c8 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$44 (+14%) realized +$44 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$80per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+8.0%	-2.3%	50%	50%	-37.1%
≤30d	4	+8.0%	-2.3%	50%	50%	-37.1%
≤90d	4	+8.0%	-2.3%	50%	50%	-37.1%
all	4	+8.0%	-2.3%	50%	50%	-37.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	50%	-37.1%
10%	-11.7%	50%	-43.2%
15%	-20.2%	50%	-48.6%
20%	-28.0%	50%	-53.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$97 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$44

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$80

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 25	$166	−$166	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$48	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 25	$52	+$48	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$28	-54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$143	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$24	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records