Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4fa2…fedb sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$9 (+4%) realized +$18 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$25
crypto 10% +$28
other 9% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+72.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +90.4% +72.2% 100% 100% +64.4%
≤30d 9 +90.4% +72.2% 100% 100% +64.4%
≤90d 9 +90.4% +72.2% 100% 100% +64.4%
all 9 +90.4% +72.2% 100% 100% +64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.2% 100% +64.4%
10% +55.7% 89% +48.7%
15% +40.7% 78% +34.3%
20% +26.9% 78% +21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 55¢ $88 $79 −$9 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 +$33 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +170%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.51 · official $92.87 · 24 history records