Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

4F 0x4fa2…32d8 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$14 (+14%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate56%14W / 11L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+6.1%	-4.0%	56%	40%	-0.7%
≤30d	25	+6.1%	-4.0%	56%	40%	-0.7%
≤90d	25	+6.1%	-4.0%	56%	40%	-0.7%
all	25	+6.1%	-4.0%	56%	40%	-0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.0%	40%	-0.7%
10%	-13.2%	32%	-10.2%
15%	-21.6%	24%	-18.9%
20%	-29.3%	24%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses14 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 18	$2	−$1	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 18	$2	−$1	-70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	Jun 18	$2	+$1	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 18	$2	$0	+7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$2	-48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	+$6	+281%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$3	−$1	-47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 15	$4	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$3	+$8	+249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$3	+$2	+79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	$0	+8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$7	+128%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$6	−$5	-85%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$11	+$9	+78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$1	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$2	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$0	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$2	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	29¢	$3	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	100¢	$8	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	87¢	$1	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	79¢	$1	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	69¢	$2	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	26¢	$1	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	32¢	$2	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$5	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	SELL Yes	88¢	$4	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$4	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	58¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$4	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records