Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa1…32bc world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1
other 16% $0
politics 6% +$1
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 15% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 15% -9.4%
all 47 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage478d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $89 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $72 −$2 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 −$2 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $11 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +2%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3? Mar 21 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on Februar Mar 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Wicked' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win between 5 and 7 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awa Mar 02 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $38 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $43 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $9 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $25 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $47 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $47 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $48 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $43 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.37 · official $32.37 (match) · 166 history records