Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa1…ae42 crypto 463 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (739 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,321 (-7%) realized −$1,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%186W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day739.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (739 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 536 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 29% -19.3%
≤30d 536 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 29% -19.3%
≤90d 536 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 29% -19.3%
all 536 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover739.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 29% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 21% -27.0%
15% -44.8% 14% -34.1%
20% -50.2% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses186 / 350
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 463
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day739.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions (249 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records