Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f9d…c67c crypto 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,827 (-13%) realized −$4,824 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%94W / 179L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$262
14 days−$503
30 days−$2,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$6,559
other 3% +$96
sports 0% −$82
culture 0% −$2
world 0% −$8
finance 0% −$6
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 51% -28.4%
≤30d 57 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 44% -23.9%
≤90d 156 -23.8% -31.1% 42% 31% -25.5%
all 273 -26.3% -33.3% 34% 26% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 26% -25.4%
10% -39.7% 21% -32.6%
15% -45.5% 14% -39.1%
20% -50.9% 10% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$59 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$4,824
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses94 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage106d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 69¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$8 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$8 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $32 +$23 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$22 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$14 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$18 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $212 −$169 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$19 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$16 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $96 −$28 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$40 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $19 +$88 +458%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$21 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$19 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $144 −$102 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $86 −$80 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $314 −$314 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,738 +$184 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $71 −$31 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $755 −$332 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $622 −$256 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,599 −$1,326 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $107 −$60 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,492 +$879 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,441 −$20 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $70 −$14 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $32 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.12 · official $12.34 · 1155 history records