Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f9b…501e sports 527 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,062 (-8%) realized −$2,059 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%296W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$138
14 days−$2,820
30 days−$2,784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,285
crypto 8% +$82
other 2% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 50% -4.1%
≤30d 208 -16.6% -24.5% 47% 40% -51.9%
≤90d 208 -16.6% -24.5% 47% 40% -51.9%
all 528 +1.6% -8.1% 56% 49% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 49% -16.6%
10% -16.9% 42% -24.6%
15% -24.9% 36% -31.9%
20% -32.3% 29% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$41 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,059
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses296 / 232
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)528 / 527
History coverage225d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $111 +$8 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $111 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $108 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $118 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 9h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $1.88 (match) · 1515 history records