Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4f9b…7e51 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$88 (+11%) realized +$114 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$49
other 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤30d 2 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤90d 2 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
all 12 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 50% +5.7%
10% -30.0% 42% -4.4%
15% -36.7% 25% -13.7%
20% -42.9% 0% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage229d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 54¢ 40¢ $96 $70 −$26 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo Jan 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Jan 29 $10 −$6 -56%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jan 28 $137 +$56 +41%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof Jan 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoff Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $11 +$3 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play Jan 25 $189 +$37 +20%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $32 +$13 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $24 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $44 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $53 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 54¢ $97 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $80 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 83¢ $80 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $73 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $10 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $10 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $74 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $52 3d
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 141d
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff SELL FunPlus Phoenix 21¢ $4 141d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play SELL TEC Esports 100¢ $193 142d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play BUY TEC Esports 72¢ $117 142d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $12 142d
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff BUY FunPlus Phoenix 48¢ $10 142d
Valorant: Trace Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoff BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $10 142d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play BUY TEC Esports 64¢ $20 142d
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $14 145d
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $10 145d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playof BUY EDward Gaming 73¢ $11 145d
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 59¢ $11 145d
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY KT Rolster 79¢ $11 145d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $226 145d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $189 145d
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 229d
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $32 229d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $24 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.28 · official $70.28 (match) · 29 history records