Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f99…07c8 crypto 955 markets active 6d ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,413 (-12%) realized −$3,413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%218W / 737L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$671
14 days+$46
30 days−$1,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,660
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -34.0% -40.3% 11% 11% -48.0%
≤30d 575 -19.0% -26.7% 20% 20% -24.7%
≤90d 748 -22.1% -29.6% 21% 21% -27.2%
all 955 -18.4% -26.2% 23% 23% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 23% -26.6%
10% -33.3% 22% -33.7%
15% -39.7% 21% -40.1%
20% -45.6% 20% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$25 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses218 / 737
Open positions0
Markets (closed)955 / 955
History coverage241d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 955 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$57 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2427 history records