Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f95…b652 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 21% −$20
politics 8% −$4
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage133d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $351 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $380 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $314 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $637 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $394 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $651 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $438 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 14h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 16h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 18h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 20h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 21h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 24h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 27h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 32h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 34h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 43h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 47h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1395 history records