trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $240 | $242 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 13 | $45 | −$4 | -9% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 12 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | Apr 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Feb 15 | $64 | +$41 | +64% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $10 | +$6 | +63% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -5.8% | -14.8% | 0% | 0% | -14.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -5.8% | -14.8% | 0% | 0% | -14.8% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -52.9% | -57.4% | 0% | 0% | -30.8% |
| all | 7 | -26.4% | -33.4% | 29% | 29% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.4% | 29% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -39.8% | 29% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -45.6% | 29% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -50.9% | 29% | -34.7% |