Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f8d…99c7 other 749 markets active 2h ago coverage 512d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 512d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,620 (+10%) realized +$5,653 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%193W / 616L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 512d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$2,993
crypto 2% −$187
world 2% −$358
economics 1% −$91
sports 0% −$76
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -92.6% -93.3% 3% 3% -47.9%
≤30d 107 -67.3% -70.4% 12% 10% -11.4%
≤90d 181 -33.6% -39.9% 18% 15% +4.0%
all 809 +0.3% -9.2% 24% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 20% -16.4%
10% -17.9% 14% -24.4%
15% -25.8% 12% -31.7%
20% -33.1% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$43 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized+$5,653
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses193 / 616
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)809 / 749
History coverage512d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 809 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $118 $219 +$101 (+85%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 50¢ 80¢ $52 $85 +$32 (+61%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $104 $73 −$31 (-30%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+45%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$38 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$36 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $30 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on Septembe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on Septembe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 329 times August 29–September 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 20 Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times August 29–September 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$6 -138%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $126,000 on September 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108,000 on September 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times August 29–September 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$5 -128%
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$5 -118%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on Septembe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 9h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 14h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.04 · official $550.19 (match) · 3500 history records