Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f8c…9a58 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$319 (+3%) realized +$773 · open −$454
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$149
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 28% -6.7%
≤30d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 28% -6.7%
≤90d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 28% -6.7%
all 25 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 28% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 28% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 8% -15.7%
15% -21.6% 4% -23.8%
20% -29.3% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized+$773
Unrealized−$454
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 96¢ 60¢ $1,193 $739 −$454 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $524 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $182 +$70 +39%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $81 +$12 +15%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $284 −$35 -12%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $233 +$17 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,380 +$58 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $299 +$52 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,106 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,365 −$124 -9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,148 +$22 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,255 +$39 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $464 +$43 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $204 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $328 +$62 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $134 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $133 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $209 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $85 +$12 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 96¢ $1,193 16m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $543 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $253 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 92¢ $231 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $252 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $160 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 50¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 92¢ $93 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $103 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 80¢ $81 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 20¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 63¢ $64 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $250 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $8 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $8 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $9 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $17 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 93¢ $233 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 74¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.58 · official $991.09 · 156 history records