trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 60% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +30.5% | +18.1% | 67% | 17% | -5.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 60% | 20% | -6.3% |
| all | 10 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 60% | 20% | -6.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.5% | 20% | -6.3% |
| 10% | -15.4% | 20% | -15.3% |
| 15% | -23.6% | 20% | -23.5% |
| 20% | -31.1% | 10% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 20¢ | 20¢ | $110 | $107 | −$3 (-2%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $74 | $74 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 92¢ | $40 | $39 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 19 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $146 | +$2 | +2% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $4 | +$7 | +178% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | May 06 | $3 | +$1 | +49% |