trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 25% | 12% | -23.4% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 36% | 18% | -20.1% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 14% | -20.3% |
| all | 15 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 33% | 13% | -20.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.2% | 13% | -20.7% |
| 10% | -42.3% | 7% | -28.3% |
| 15% | -47.9% | 0% | -35.2% |
| 20% | -53.0% | 0% | -41.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 81¢ | $107 | $105 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $85 | $86 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 17 | $107 | −$46 | -42% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $110 | +$12 | +11% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 22 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 22 | $207 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 22 | $2 | +$1 | +26% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | May 12 | $3 | $0 | +9% |
| Grizzlies vs. Mavericks | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |