Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f87…40fb
other · 110 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$66 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage95d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$33
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $58 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $488 −$3 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $56 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$2 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 −$7 -13%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $49 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $114 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $60 −$2 -3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $155 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $94 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $62 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $47 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $56 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$24
politics 24% −$11
sports 18% −$10
crypto 11% −$3
economics 7% −$7
culture 5% −$2
world 2% −$3
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $58 2h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $9 10h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $49 10h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 11h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $51 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $46 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $46 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $64 32h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $64 37h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 91¢ $55 37h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 92¢ $56 43h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $57 44h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 3d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 5d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 52 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 102 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 109 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.29 · official $51.29 (match) · 424 history records