Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f83…4957 crypto 1434 markets active 23h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1373W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$24
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1078 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -9.7%
all 1434 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1373 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1434 / 1434
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1434 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records