Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4f83…1a6b sports 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,494 (+26%) realized +$4,495 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate60%286W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$549
crypto 8% −$179
other 5% −$2
world 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 5% -9.8%
≤30d 101 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 3% -10.9%
≤90d 474 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 8% -13.4%
all 474 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 8% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 8% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 5% -21.7%
15% -32.3% 3% -29.2%
20% -38.9% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$4,495
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses286 / 188
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)474 / 475
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $332 −$3 -1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $285 −$3 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $57 $0 -1%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $23 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $29 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $166 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $166 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $3 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 48¢ $0 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 48¢ $0 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 43¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 43¢ $0 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 43¢ $1 19h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 100¢ $9 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 100¢ $3 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $4 21h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2 21h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 95¢ $4 34h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $4 37h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $5 38h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 38h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $3 38h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $2 38h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $3 41h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 99¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.11 · official $7.35 (match) · 3500 history records