Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f7f…2925 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$306 (-42%) realized −$182 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$286
other 25% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-71.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -68.9% -71.8% 7% 7% -39.3%
≤30d 14 -68.9% -71.8% 7% 7% -39.3%
≤90d 14 -68.9% -71.8% 7% 7% -39.3%
all 14 -68.9% -71.8% 7% 7% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.8% 7% -39.3%
10% ← realistic here -74.5% 7% -45.1%
15% -77.0% 7% -50.4%
20% -79.2% 7% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$26 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Up 15¢ 3¢ $150 $26 −$124 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $179 −$20 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$41 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$151 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 46m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $119 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $34 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 57m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 58m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.02 · official $26.13 (match) · 28 history records