Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f7d…f097 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$613 (-10%) realized −$613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$634
14 days−$428
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,666
sports 37% +$740
crypto 6% +$370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -66.8% -69.9% 13% 13% -59.8%
≤30d 50 -7.1% -15.9% 24% 24% -19.0%
≤90d 50 -7.1% -15.9% 24% 24% -19.0%
all 50 -7.1% -15.9% 24% 24% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 24% -19.0%
10% -24.0% 24% -26.8%
15% -31.3% 24% -33.8%
20% -38.0% 22% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$105 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage26d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$148 +146%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $39 −$38 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $102 +$155 +153%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $102 +$453 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,074 +$903 +84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$59 +57%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 +$107 +104%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $191 −$187 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 +$103 +227%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $102 −$47 -46%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $205 +$440 +215%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$424 +414%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $77 +$320 +416%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 +$263 +257%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $106 −$103 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$97 -95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$92 -89%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $129 −$128 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côt BUY 2¢ $26 9h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 5d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $49 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $102 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 7d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,913 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $971 8d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $46 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $161 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 19¢ $209 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records