Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f7d…b3ff
crypto · 573 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,244 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,224 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized−$4,224
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses161 / 398
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions14
Markets (closed)559 / 573
History coverage19d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day136.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 14 History 559 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$1,561
14 days−$3,756
30 days−$4,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 57¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Haiti 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $26 +$19 +74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $16 +$14 +92%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$10 -24%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$41 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $91 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $60 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $69 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $86 +$55 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $69 +$79 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $75 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$71 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$4 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$4,616
sports 15% +$479
other 1% −$107
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $5 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $6 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $6 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $5 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $5 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $5 10h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 31% -30.4%
≤30d 559 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 28% -34.1%
≤90d 559 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 28% -34.1%
all 559 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 28% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover136.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 28% -34.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 25% -40.4%
15% -51.8% 23% -46.2%
20% -56.6% 20% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.84 · official $156.84 (match) · 2820 history records