Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f7d…e22f
world · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage479d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No 86¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$2 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $25 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $98 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36 +$2 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $2 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $69 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $6 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $66 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% $0
politics 24% $0
other 23% −$5
sports 16% −$8
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $32 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 +4.5% -5.4% 33% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 63 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 2% -9.6%
all 65 -2.7% -12.0% 29% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.06 · official $32.06 (match) · 241 history records