Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f7c…98f0 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-10%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$42
politics 13% $0
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -18.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -26.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -33.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage567d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 27 $0 $0 -12%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jul 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $0 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -17%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 08 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $148 $0 +0%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $8 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 22d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 22d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 50d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 50d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $9 78d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $9 78d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 91d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 91d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 110d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 111d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 141d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $8 141d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 174d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 174d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $10 202d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $10 202d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 230d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 230d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 259d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 259d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 292d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 292d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 292d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 327d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 327d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 327d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 363d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records