Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f77…51c4 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$137 (+10%) realized +$135 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$99
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$101
sports 42% +$30
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 100% +43.4%
≤90d 10 +6.1% -4.0% 90% 30% +4.8%
all 15 +4.3% -5.7% 93% 20% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 20% +3.7%
10% -14.7% 20% -6.2%
15% -22.9% 20% -15.3%
20% -30.5% 7% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$177 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 63¢ 62¢ $301 $294 −$7 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $128 $129 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $199 +$99 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $190 +$128 +67%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 12 $180 −$177 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 8? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February? May 12 $9 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 12 $190 +$79 +42%
Will MrBeast hit 110 billion views by January 31? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Feb 04 $11 $0 +2%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 06 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $130 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $304 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $199 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $190 21d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 42¢ $180 44d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $190 70d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 95d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 103d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $8 111d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 135d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $9 135d
Will MrBeast hit 110 billion views by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 147d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark BUY No 98¢ $11 153d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 163d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $14 170d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.33 · official $423.33 (match) · 38 history records