Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f76…8b06 world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 76L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$55
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$47
other 22% +$3
politics 13% +$2
sports 10% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 32 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 77 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 5% -8.9%
all 107 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 76
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage302d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $138 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $194 −$12 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $140 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $309 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $135 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $185 −$4 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $300 +$68 +22%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $323 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $209 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $192 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $3 +$2 +60%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $138 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $322 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $101 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $211 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $111 −$9 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $96 −$5 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $83 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $92 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $84 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $168 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $81 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $84 +$2 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $162 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $169 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $80 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $123 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $54 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $72 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $74 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $74 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $72 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $124 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $119 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $76 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.71 · official $49.41 · 470 history records