Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f70…0ca9 world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,622 (+6%) realized +$3,972 · open +$650
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%51W / 30L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$855per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$18,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days+$707
14 days+$2,047
30 days+$3,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$5,116
world 26% +$3,246
sports 24% −$3,212
crypto 7% −$245
politics 2% −$971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 61% -7.5%
≤30d 55 +3.4% -6.5% 69% 60% -4.1%
≤90d 76 -10.4% -18.9% 61% 54% -5.0%
all 81 -6.7% -15.6% 63% 57% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 57% -4.8%
10% -23.7% 43% -13.9%
15% -31.0% 32% -22.2%
20% -37.8% 21% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$483 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$18,402
Realized+$3,972
Unrealized+$650
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses51 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions14
Markets (closed)81 / 95
History coverage110d
Avg bet$855
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $6,124 $6,121 −$4 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $4,277 $4,267 −$10 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $2,000 $2,173 +$173 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 49¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,751 +$751 (+75%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $1,213 $1,485 +$273 (+23%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1,000 $1,023 +$23 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $488 $493 +$5 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $400 $242 −$158 (-39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 11¢ $400 $106 −$294 (-73%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 17¢ $200 $99 −$101 (-51%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $49 $3 −$45 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $4,149 −$4,098 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,058 +$3,087 +61%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $4,996 +$993 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,298 +$354 +27%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $506 +$356 +70%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $2,008 +$318 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,998 +$648 +32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,082 −$845 -78%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 −$351 -69%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 +$21 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,400 +$990 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $900 +$422 +47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $500 +$351 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $343 −$340 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,606 −$1,264 -79%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $151 +$38 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $507 +$117 +23%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $512 −$512 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 14 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $809 +$441 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$366 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 +$41 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $514 +$309 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$492 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$38 +75%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $518 +$523 +101%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 07 $200 +$41 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,409 +$383 +27%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $204 +$296 +145%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 06 $620 −$600 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $2,400 +$1,059 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $603 +$111 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $802 +$59 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $746 +$18 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $404 +$176 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $1,112 −$1,100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $403 +$123 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $204 −$200 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,500 +$446 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$733 +147%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $1,009 +$439 +44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $1,000 +$485 +48%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $196 −$191 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $321 −$321 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,000 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $1,111 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 57¢ $1,013 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $930 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 24h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 58¢ $2,025 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,023 27h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $4,996 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $291 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 46h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 58¢ $506 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,023 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $2,008 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,000 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $999 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $850 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $158 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $327 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $223 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $233 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,015 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $851 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,401.57 · official $18,497.81 (match) · 261 history records