Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f69…0419
crypto · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses71 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$8
other 14% $0
sports 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 40% -15.0%
≤30d 90 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 40% -15.0%
≤90d 90 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 40% -15.0%
all 90 -1.8% -11.1% 79% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 40% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 17% -23.1%
15% -27.4% 9% -30.6%
20% -34.5% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.76 · official $9.76 (match) · 257 history records