Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f68…3e9c
crypto · 600 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,001 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$977 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized−$977
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses199 / 393
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions8
Markets (closed)592 / 600
History coverage148d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 8 History 592 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days+$178
14 days+$101
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Yes 98¢ 50¢ $49 $25 −$24 (-49%)
Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots Yes 98¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Raphinha: 1+ shots Yes 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots Yes 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots Yes 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5 Under 14¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner LOS 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ assists Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Malik Tillman: 1+ assists No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots Jun 13 $8 −$7 -87%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $90 +$17 +19%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $106 +$200 +188%
Malik Tillman: 1+ assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Sead Kolašinac: 1+ assists Jun 12 $28 +$173 +623%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $298 +$7 +2%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ assists Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Erik Lira: 1+ assists Jun 11 $172 $0 -0%
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? Jun 11 $32 −$15 -47%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +114%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $11 +$8 +67%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $21 +$34 +164%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 07 $205 −$204 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$7 -97%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $103 −$76 -74%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $100 +$14 +14%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $4 $0 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $300 +$1 +0%
Fluminense FC leading at halftime? Jun 01 $57 +$1 +2%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $148 +$188 +127%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 May 31 $9 −$9 -97%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $260 −$125 -48%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5 May 31 $271 +$2 +1%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 May 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $124 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +7%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 May 31 $216 +$8 +4%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 31 $248 +$2 +1%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 31 $14 $0 -3%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $46 −$15 -32%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 0.5 May 30 $28 +$1 +2%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 30 $172 +$2 +1%
AC Goianiense vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $49 $0 +1%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $272 +$3 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $65 −$65 -99%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $215 +$2 +1%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $206 +$8 +4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 1.5 May 29 $200 −$24 -12%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $361 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$901
other 26% +$556
crypto 15% −$630
culture 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 98¢ $49 32m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 98¢ $13 43m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 95¢ $6 44m
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots BUY Yes 95¢ $6 45m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $21 53m
Raphinha: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $21 54m
Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $23 55m
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shots BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? SELL Made 99¢ $106 3h
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? BUY Made 83¢ $90 3h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $306 21h
Malik Tillman: 1+ assists BUY No 10¢ $2 21h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $106 21h
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 22h
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 22h
Sead Kolašinac: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $20 27h
Sead Kolašinac: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Sead Kolašinac: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $305 2d
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $220 2d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $52 2d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 2d
Erik Lira: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $172 2d
Erik Lira: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $172 2d
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 2d
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 3d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 11¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.9% +2.1% 42% 32% +5.6%
≤30d 128 -39.4% -45.2% 28% 14% -12.5%
≤90d 394 -28.4% -35.2% 27% 20% -14.5%
all 592 -10.9% -19.4% 34% 28% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 28% -13.8%
10% -27.1% 26% -22.0%
15% -34.1% 24% -29.6%
20% -40.6% 22% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.06 · official $118.06 (match) · 1862 history records