Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4F 0x4f64…61bc other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$54 (+15%) realized +$50 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+17.9%	+6.7%	67%	33%	+13.9%
≤30d	3	+17.9%	+6.7%	67%	33%	+13.9%
≤90d	3	+17.9%	+6.7%	67%	33%	+13.9%
all	3	+17.9%	+6.7%	67%	33%	+13.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.7%	33%	+13.9%
10%	-3.5%	33%	+3.0%
15%	-12.9%	33%	-6.9%
20%	-21.4%	33%	-16.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$2 · ×15.34 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×30.68 per $1 lost it wins $30.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized+$50

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	98¢	$54	$58	+$4 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$52	+$3	+5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$53	−$2	-3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$53	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$54	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$54	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	95¢	$52	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	43¢	$52	3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W	BUY	26¢	$100	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$53	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$154	47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.36 · official $58.18 (match) · 8 history records