Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f62…2ce6 crypto 81 markets active 13d ago coverage 256d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 255d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$62,347 (+48%) realized +$68,334 · open −$5,987
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%26W / 67L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,602per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$12,043
other 1% −$1,895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.5% -13.6% 5% 5% -100.0%
≤30d 29 +122.2% +101.0% 28% 28% -50.6%
≤90d 45 +46.9% +32.9% 20% 20% -66.6%
all 93 +80.5% +63.3% 28% 27% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.3% 27% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here +47.7% 27% -27.6%
15% +33.4% 27% -34.6%
20% +20.3% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +76% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
41.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,896 vs −$1,559 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$1,660
Realized+$68,334
Unrealized−$5,987
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses26 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)93 / 81
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$1,602
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1,178 $690 −$488 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $814 $210 −$604 (-74%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1,006 $204 −$802 (-80%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,250 $168 −$2,082 (-93%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $696 $147 −$550 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $349 $107 −$242 (-69%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $830 $99 −$731 (-88%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $182 $20 −$162 (-89%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $96 $12 −$84 (-87%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $245 $4 −$241 (-98%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 28 $998 −$998 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jun 28 $0 +$27,399 +182661134%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 28 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 28 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Jun 28 $1,362 −$1,362 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 28 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 28 $2,045 −$2,045 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Jun 28 $0 +$14,197 +4018257%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Jun 28 $939 −$939 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Jun 28 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 28 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jun 28 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Jun 28 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Jun 28 $4,699 −$4,699 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 28 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Jun 28 $515 −$515 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Jun 28 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Jun 28 $626 −$626 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Jun 28 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $149 +$1,392 +934%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $40 +$465 +1169%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $818 +$2,482 +303%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $2,511 +$5,389 +215%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $171 +$320 +187%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $280 +$1,243 +444%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,365 +$5,344 +391%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 13 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 11 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 11 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 04 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 03 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 03 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? Apr 13 $2,000 +$926 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Apr 08 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 07 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 07 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 07 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 06 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 06 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Mar 04 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Mar 04 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Mar 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Mar 02 $1,558 −$1,558 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $91 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $77 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $118 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $141 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 17d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $226 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $327 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $262 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,659.94 · official $1,659.94 (match) · 3500 history records