trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -15.5% | -23.6% | 50% | 50% | -1.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -43.7% | -49.0% | 33% | 33% | -2.1% |
| all | 11 | -53.7% | -58.1% | 27% | 18% | -19.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -58.1% | 18% | -19.8% |
| 10% | -62.1% | 18% | -27.4% |
| 15% | -65.8% | 18% | -34.5% |
| 20% | -69.1% | 0% | -40.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 3¢ | $1,000 | $938 | −$62 (-6%) |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $250 | +$50 (+25%) |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $1,032 | +$452 | +44% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $47 | +$17 | +36% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 21 | $415 | −$128 | -31% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | May 16 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | May 16 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | Feb 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | Feb 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | Feb 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $2,000 | −$666 | -33% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $960 | +$48 | +5% |