Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f5c…d8de other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$277 (-48%) realized −$123 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$308
sports 31% −$103
world 2% −$10
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 1¢ $97 $38 −$58 (-60%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $97 $1 −$96 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.95 · official $39.95 (match) · 20 history records