Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f5a…669b sports 139 markets active 6d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,309 (-33%) realized −$1,327 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%59W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,367
other 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.5% -37.1% 29% 29% -32.6%
≤30d 17 -30.5% -37.1% 29% 29% -32.6%
≤90d 137 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 32% -40.6%
all 137 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 32% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 32% -40.6%
10% -33.7% 31% -46.3%
15% -40.1% 24% -51.5%
20% -46.0% 23% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,327
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses59 / 78
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage51d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 78¢ $33 $52 +$18 (+54%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$12 +238%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $25 +$17 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$9 +188%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sandefjord Fotball (-1.5) May 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) Apr 29 $5 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Apr 28 $61 +$6 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Apr 28 $2 +$10 +442%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5 Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Apr 28 $9 +$3 +31%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Apr 28 $6 +$1 +13%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5) Apr 28 $2 +$10 +649%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Apr 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Fatih Karagümrük SK (-2.5) Apr 27 $14 +$1 +10%
Total Kills Over/Under 52.5 in Game 3? Apr 27 $33 −$1 -3%
Total Kills Over/Under 54.5 in Game 3? Apr 27 $33 −$1 -3%
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 27 $149 +$37 +25%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 197.5 Apr 27 $6 +$6 +93%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-2.5) Apr 26 $8 $0 +5%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $15 +$4 +27%
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 16¢ $15 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 5d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $7 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $8 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 6d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 28¢ $7 6d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 25¢ $10 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 6d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 34¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 6d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ $5 6d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 30¢ $10 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $5 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Angels 3¢ $2 50d
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) BUY Nuggets 91¢ $61 50d
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 50d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 50d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7 50d
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) BUY Thunder 32¢ $2 50d
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) BUY Thunder 34¢ $3 50d
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 50d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.36 · official $56.36 (match) · 503 history records