Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4f57…04bc sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$289 (+14%) realized +$282 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 80L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$322
14 days−$286
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$101
other 18% +$38
world 5% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -33.9% -40.2% 21% 21% -44.7%
≤30d 68 -12.8% -21.1% 34% 34% -23.6%
≤90d 134 +9.8% -0.6% 41% 40% +0.4%
all 138 +11.9% +1.3% 42% 41% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 41% +1.8%
10% -8.4% 40% -8.0%
15% -17.3% 39% -16.9%
20% -25.4% 37% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 80
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions9
Markets (closed)138 / 147
History coverage107d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $12 $32 +$20 (+171%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+11%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Qingdao Eagles Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $61 −$4 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $37 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 45h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.09 · official $110.09 (match) · 349 history records