Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f57…27e4 sports 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,478 (-5%) realized −$1,481 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%119W / 157L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day92.2pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$340
14 days−$1,771
30 days−$2,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$735
sports 47% −$1,290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -24.4% -31.6% 19% 16% -14.7%
≤30d 276 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 276 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 32% -15.5%
all 276 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 32% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 24% -23.6%
15% -37.3% 16% -31.0%
20% -43.5% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$1,481
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses119 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions9
Markets (closed)276 / 285
History coverage29d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day92.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 44¢ 45¢ $175 $180 +$5 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $117 $145 +$29 (+24%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $29 $15 −$14 (-49%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $250 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $112 −$52 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $281 −$36 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $187 −$10 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $155 −$89 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $78 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $83 +$184 +221%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$11 -60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $800 +$305 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $706 −$469 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $315 −$273 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,027 +$317 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$9 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $392 −$38 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$40 -76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $115 −$7 -6%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 10 $65 −$6 -9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $22 −$13 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $332 +$105 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $321 −$66 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $126 −$104 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $94 −$66 -71%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $129 +$22 +17%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $215 −$46 -21%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $131 −$28 -21%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $119 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $238 −$14 -6%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $71 −$7 -10%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $45 −$7 -15%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $88 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $187 −$54 -29%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $121 −$27 -22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $84 −$69 -82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $456 −$68 -15%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $47 +$1 +1%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $32 −$8 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 48m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 52m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 52m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $68 57m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 58m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 13h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $60 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.42 · official $434.42 (match) · 2923 history records