Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f56…d7db sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (186 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,041 (+12%) realized +$1,066 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate83%24W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day186.0pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (186 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.8% +6.6% 83% 45% +2.2%
≤30d 29 +17.8% +6.6% 83% 45% +2.2%
≤90d 29 +17.8% +6.6% 83% 45% +2.2%
all 29 +17.8% +6.6% 83% 45% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 45% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 28% -7.6%
15% -12.9% 14% -16.5%
20% -21.5% 14% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$11 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.37 per $1 lost it wins $19.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,066
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses24 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day186.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $73 −$23 -32%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $622 +$47 +8%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $25 +$16 +62%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $408 +$87 +21%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $190 +$54 +28%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $536 +$69 +13%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $710 +$79 +11%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $264 +$39 +15%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $235 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $263 −$29 -11%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 22 $52 +$14 +28%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $644 +$63 +10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $357 +$49 +14%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $318 +$32 +10%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $223 +$55 +24%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $680 +$55 +8%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $92 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $23 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $744 +$172 +23%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $20 +$19 +94%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $154 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $273 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$10 +84%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $310 +$24 +8%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $4 −$1 -34%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $204 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $126 +$150 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 25¢ $50 7m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 23¢ $29 15m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 54¢ $44 32m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $999 57m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $434 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $55 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $157 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $236 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 2¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 6¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 5¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 10¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 413 history records