Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f56…50ed sports 107 markets active 23h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+9%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%48W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$5
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$21
crypto 12% −$7
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -19.0% -26.7% 39% 39% -18.3%
≤30d 106 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 44% -4.1%
≤90d 106 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 44% -4.1%
all 106 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 44% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -4.1%
10% -20.1% 41% -13.3%
15% -27.8% 36% -21.6%
20% -34.9% 29% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses48 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +206%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -85%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $4 −$1 -28%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +77%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $1 +$2 +226%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $7 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 34¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $1 5d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 25¢ $1 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 28¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 14¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 24¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 60¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 79¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 50¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.47 (match) · 234 history records