Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f56…deb5
other · 249 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$78 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$89 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage130d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 248 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $382 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $311 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $683 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $322 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $393 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $633 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $667 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $303 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 30 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $265 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 27 $359 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $217 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 26 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$40
sports 24% −$25
politics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 32m
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $61 2h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 10h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 11h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 14h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 25h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 27h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 34h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 36h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 44h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.85 · official $60.85 (match) · 1289 history records