Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f53…2a6e
weather · 1431 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$163 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$176 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,344
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1403 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1405 / 1431
History coverage25d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 23 History 1405 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$28
14 days+$47
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? Yes 98¢ 84¢ $78 $67 −$11 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 84¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Hijikata vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs fnatic 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: XCLAN vs Benjis Anglar (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Grillmix vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 67% +$60
sports 30% −$3
tech 3% +$117
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 20m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 21m
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 100¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 7h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $70 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -0.0% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1405 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1405 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 1405 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,344.23 · official $1,344.23 (match) · 3500 history records