Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f52…49fe
other · 84 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$18 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage231d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 1 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Apr 17 $2 +$8 +485%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 16 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 16 $3 +$7 +283%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 22 $2 +$8 +340%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 12 $4 +$6 +150%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $2 +$8 +440%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $2 +$8 +475%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 23 $1 +$9 +740%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $2 +$8 +492%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$18
sports 25% −$1
crypto 13% $0
tech 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $10 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $7 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 31d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 31d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 35d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 35d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 149d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 149d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 149d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 149d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 170d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $2 170d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 66¢ $7 170d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $2 174d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $3 174d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 174d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 174d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 174d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 178d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $2 178d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 178d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 15¢ $1 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 178d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 184d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 56¢ $6 184d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 184d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.1% +5.1% 67% 67% +1.6%
≤30d 3 +16.1% +5.1% 67% 67% +1.6%
≤90d 8 +37.8% +24.6% 50% 50% -6.1%
all 83 -6.6% -15.5% 30% 27% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 27% -14.0%
10% -23.6% 22% -22.2%
15% -31.0% 22% -29.7%
20% -37.7% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.12 (match) · 111 history records