Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f51…ca1d world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
other 18% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 14% −$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 +1.5% -8.1% 38% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 73 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 3% -9.7%
all 81 +2.1% -7.6% 37% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 6% -10.0%
10% -16.5% 5% -18.7%
15% -24.5% 5% -26.5%
20% -31.9% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage536d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 66¢ 95¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $61 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $26 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $57 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $27 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $23 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $27 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $22 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $22 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $30 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $19 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.75 · official $0.00 · 335 history records