Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f50…0eaf sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,629 (-9%) realized −$2,629 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%54W / 40L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,210
crypto 31% −$1,975
other 7% +$597
world 3% +$44
economics 1% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 86% 43% +4.3%
≤30d 7 +3.6% -6.3% 86% 43% +4.3%
≤90d 10 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 30% -24.3%
all 94 -15.8% -23.9% 57% 29% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 29% -17.5%
10% -31.1% 19% -25.4%
15% -37.8% 11% -32.6%
20% -43.9% 6% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$144 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$2,629
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage163d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $269 −$268 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $3,291 −$506 -15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 06 $800 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 21 $596 −$596 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 21 $566 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 21 $110 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $634 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 21 $110 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Nets vs. Thunder Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 20 $230 +$32 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 20 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 20 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 20 $696 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 20 $228 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 20 $595 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 20 $536 +$59 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 20 $549 −$13 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 20 $253 +$171 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 20 $369 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 20 $10 +$28 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 20 $369 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 20 $413 +$3 +1%
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Feb 19 $53 +$10 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $346 +$3 +1%
Charlotte 49ers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs OG (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 19 $100 −$46 -46%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 18 $1 $0 -20%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats Feb 18 $390 +$58 +15%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 85¢ $269 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Delhi Capitals 7¢ $277 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 62¢ $2,367 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 51¢ $100 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Delhi Capitals 48¢ $2,141 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Delhi Capitals 29¢ $367 79d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 14¢ $814 80d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 51¢ $10 80d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 97¢ $800 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $596 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $100 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $100 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $556 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 126d
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers SELL Nuggets 100¢ $668 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.04 · official $69.04 (match) · 306 history records