Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f46…ca8b crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$397 (+6%) realized +$428 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$585
other 31% +$822
sports 19% +$344
world 6% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.8% -13.9% 41% 37% -5.9%
≤30d 49 -4.8% -13.9% 41% 37% -5.9%
≤90d 49 -4.8% -13.9% 41% 37% -5.9%
all 49 -4.8% -13.9% 41% 37% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 37% -5.9%
10% -22.1% 37% -14.9%
15% -29.7% 35% -23.1%
20% -36.6% 33% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$90 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$428
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage6d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $403 −$398 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$6 -6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $173 −$170 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$81 -80%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$60 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$82 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$154 +209%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$89 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$456 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$255 +249%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $563 +$535 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,117 +$597 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $199 +$126 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $364 −$364 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $465 −$271 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$81 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$120 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$53 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$87 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$46 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$38 +179%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$39 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$19 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$27 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$92 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $186 +$65 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 41m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $403 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 40¢ $96 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $173 40h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $20 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $102 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $102 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $102 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $19 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $81 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $63 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.56 · official $468.56 (match) · 133 history records