Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f43…7fc0 politics 32 markets active 1d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$1
world 32% +$1
other 11% −$1
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.9%
all 32 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage258d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 11 $9 $0 +3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +28%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $1 $0 -23%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $28 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $28 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $25 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $3 7d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 246d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 97¢ $19 246d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 96¢ $19 246d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $19 247d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $23 247d
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $23 247d
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $23 247d
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 247d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $20 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records