Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f43…fc26 crypto 884 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,937 (-11%) realized −$1,937 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%585W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,085
7 days−$2,070
14 days−$2,097
30 days−$2,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$632
other 6% −$10
sports 3% +$73
world 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -21.1% -28.6% 10% 10% -73.1%
≤30d 596 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 20% -26.0%
≤90d 1092 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 36% -22.1%
all 1092 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 36% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 36% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 29% -29.5%
15% -32.1% 21% -36.3%
20% -38.7% 13% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,937
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses585 / 507
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1092 / 884
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1092 Trades
no open positions (419 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +2382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$6 +1670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$6 +2328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$5 -180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$5 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 78¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $48 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $43 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $52 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $49 20h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $46 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records