Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

4F 0x4f43…0993 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$45 (+19%) realized +$45 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day10.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+23.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+36.2%	+23.2%	86%	86%	+16.7%
≤30d	7	+36.2%	+23.2%	86%	86%	+16.7%
≤90d	7	+36.2%	+23.2%	86%	86%	+16.7%
all	7	+36.2%	+23.2%	86%	86%	+16.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.2%	86%	+16.7%
10%	+11.4%	43%	+5.6%
15%	+0.7%	43%	-4.6%
20%	-9.2%	43%	-14.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.28 per $1 lost it wins $6.28

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$55

Realized+$45

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day10.8

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Brazil	74¢	74¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	27¢	26¢	$6	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Jun 29	$54	+$7	+12%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Jun 29	$48	+$7	+14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$26	+$22	+82%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Jun 28	$10	+$16	+158%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$18	+$3	+14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$10	+$7	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	27¢	$6	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	74¢	$50	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$61	2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	88¢	$54	2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	SELL T1	96¢	$54	2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY T1	84¢	$48	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	54¢	$16	13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	14h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	14h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	26h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$18	29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	37h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.08 · official $55.08 (match) · 16 history records