Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f42…8bbc
sports · 1138 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$29,818 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30,692 · open −$673
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,516
Realized+$30,692
Unrealized−$673
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses320 / 785
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$19,174
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1105 / 1138
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 16 History 1105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,472
7 days+$7,515
14 days+$9,399
30 days+$18,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 25¢ $480 $702 +$222 (+46%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $725 $699 −$26 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $250 $429 +$179 (+72%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $500 $389 −$111 (-22%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $250 $389 +$139 (+55%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $250 $270 +$20 (+8%)
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 20¢ $295 $262 −$33 (-11%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $150 $203 +$53 (+36%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $46 +$16 (+50%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $380 $46 −$334 (-88%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $39 −$13 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the US strike Iran next? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Russia vs. Mali: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $538 +$572 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $562 −$43 -8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,797 +$3,532 +126%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6,084 −$1,106 -18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11,951 +$2,892 +24%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3,172 +$2,029 +64%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1,823 +$1,803 +99%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $256 −$34 -13%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $40 −$9 -24%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 −$19 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $390 −$35 -9%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $293 −$37 -12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $572 −$38 -7%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $307 −$158 -51%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $662 +$123 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,727 −$122 -7%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $509 +$709 +139%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $709 +$340 +48%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $355 +$352 +99%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $311 +$45 +15%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $509 −$498 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $718 +$1,783 +248%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $307 +$32 +10%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3,575 −$3,500 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $3,709 −$2,500 -67%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $713 +$528 +74%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $87 −$29 -34%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $4,516 −$1,243 -28%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $561 −$550 -98%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $508 +$529 +104%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $307 −$300 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,678 −$745 -44%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $460 −$450 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $459 +$731 +159%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2,861 +$1,983 +69%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $510 −$389 -76%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $256 −$213 -83%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $256 −$37 -14%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $6,578 +$4,187 +64%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1,318 −$78 -6%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1,324 −$145 -11%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $461 −$450 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1,829 −$1,800 -98%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $256 −$23 -9%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $6,159 +$3,357 +54%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $62 −$15 -25%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $77 −$15 -19%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $327 −$204 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$32,629
other 1% −$922
crypto 0% −$718
world 0% −$665
politics 0% −$297
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,109 6m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 7¢ $123 36m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 18¢ $236 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $257 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 1h
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $302 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $257 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $154 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $519 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $255 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $538 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6,329 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $4,973 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $6,079 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2,797 18h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6,841 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2,021 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,823 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $8,002 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 BUY 19¢ $10 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $5 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.6% -15.5% 34% 32% +0.0%
≤30d 263 -4.6% -13.7% 34% 32% -3.6%
≤90d 946 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 31% -6.5%
all 1105 -5.5% -14.5% 29% 27% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 27% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 26% -15.5%
15% -30.1% 24% -23.7%
20% -37.0% 23% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,515.79 · official $3,515.79 (match) · 2512 history records