Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f41…547c sports 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$430 (-1%) realized −$386 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%120W / 108L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$409est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,245
7 days−$807
14 days−$6,969
30 days−$1,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$675
other 2% −$20
crypto 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 52% -17.8%
≤30d 161 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 178 -5.9% -14.9% 53% 51% -8.9%
all 228 -7.8% -16.5% 53% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 49% -10.9%
10% -24.5% 44% -19.4%
15% -31.8% 36% -27.2%
20% -38.5% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$151 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses120 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$409
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage110d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Team Bald 56¢ 50¢ $450 $406 −$44 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $101 +$92 +90%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $279 +$83 +30%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $318 −$318 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $434 −$434 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 25 $329 −$329 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $405 −$405 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $700 −$700 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $285 −$285 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $178 +$166 +93%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $547 +$438 +80%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $113 −$113 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $611 −$611 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $388 +$448 +115%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $126 +$234 +185%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $324 +$395 +122%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $350 +$149 +43%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $250 +$249 +100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $378 +$94 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $353 +$152 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $407 +$522 +128%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +118%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $254 +$242 +95%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $265 +$52 +20%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $348 +$107 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $261 +$52 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $510 +$139 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $364 +$146 +40%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $221 +$143 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $116 −$52 -45%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 55¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 56¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 57¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL ex-Sashi Academy 100¢ $193 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 52¢ $101 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 77¢ $183 26h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 77¢ $79 26h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 77¢ $17 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $59 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $38 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $212 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 25¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $329 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.61 · official $405.61 (match) · 790 history records